南方复杂岩溶区耕地土壤pH值空间预测模型比较研究以广西隆安县为例

Comparative study on spatial distribution prediction methods of soil pH in cultivated land within the southern complex Karst region: a case study of Long'an County

  • 摘要: 南方岩溶区地形地貌条件特殊且复杂,高精度制图难度大。本研究基于隆安县测土配方施肥(2007 ― 2009年)期间采用S型采样法采集的5441个表层(0 ~ 20 cm)土壤样本数据,将研究区域划分为岩溶区和非岩溶区,构建了普通克里格(OK)、地理加权回归克里格(GWRK)、回归克里格(LRK)、随机森林克里格(RFK)等4种数字土壤制图模型,对比分析了不同土壤pH值空间预测模型的性能差异,探讨了地形复杂岩溶区土壤pH值空间分布预测方法。结果表明:① 岩溶区土壤pH值整体偏高且以中碱性为主,非岩溶区则普遍呈酸性,其中酸性土壤集中分布于东南部非岩溶区,而中性至碱性土壤多见于岩溶区及其中部交界地带。②岩溶区和非岩溶区耕地土壤pH值均存在强烈的空间自相关性、中等变异、聚集特性明显,土壤pH的空间变异主要由结构性因素引起。③4种模型的全域与分区预测结果空间分布格局相似,酸性土壤集中分布在非岩溶区的东南部地区,中性和碱性土壤集中分布在岩溶区以及中部岩溶区与非岩溶区交界位置。④多年降水、土壤类型、多年气温及侵蚀模数等结构性因素和排水及灌溉等随机因素是影响岩溶区耕地土壤pH值的主导因素。⑤在模型精度方面,全域预测精度由高到低排序为RFK>OK>RF>LRK>GWRK,RFK的表现最佳(R2=0.628),其次是OK模型(R2=0.611);分区后岩溶区OK表现最佳(R2=0.593);非岩溶区RF精度最高(R2=0.621),其次是OK模型(R2=0.616)。OK模型全域预测对高值区域体现不明显,LRK和GWRK模型分区预测后高值与低值区域有所扩大,全域预测的RFK模型和分区预测OK、RF模型精度和制图细节最优。在预测复杂岩溶区土壤pH值时,县域尺度范围分区预测后不一定能提高模型精度,若环境变量易于获取建议县域范围采用RFK模型预测,若环境变量不易获取建议采用分岩溶区和非岩溶区的OK模型预测。研究结果可为南方复杂岩溶区土壤pH值高精度制图、土壤酸化调控与精准施肥等提供方法支撑。

     

    Abstract: The topographical and geomorphological conditions in complex Karst regions of southern China are special and highly intricate, which makes high-precision mapping pose significant challenges. This study explores the spatial distribution prediction methods of soil pH in Karst areas by comparing the performance differences of various spatial prediction models, based on 5 441 surface (0 - 20 cm) soil samples collected using zigzag sampling method during the Soil Testing and Fertilizer Recommendations (STFR, 2007-2009) in Long'an County. The study area was divided into Karst and non-Karst regions, four digital soil mapping models were constructed, including Ordinary Kriging (OK), Geographically Weighted Regression Kriging (GWRK), Linear Regression Kriging (LRK), and Random Forest Kriging (RFK). Results show that: ① The soil pH in the Karst regions is generally high, predominantly alkaline, while the non-Karst regions are mostly acidic. Acidic soils are concentrated in the southeastern non-Karst regions, whereas neutral to alkaline soils are more common in the Karst regions and their central transitional belts. ② There is a strong spatial autocorrelation, moderate variation, and obvious clustering characteristics in the soil pH of cultivated land in both Karst and non-Karst regions. The spatial variation of soil pH is mainly caused by structural factors. ③ The spatial distribution patterns of the prediction results from the four models are similar at both global and zonal scales, showing that acidic soils are concentrated in the southeastern part of the non-Karst regions, while neutral and alkaline soils are concentrated in the Karst regions and at the boundaries between the Karst and non-Karst regions within their central regions. ④ Structural factors such as long-term precipitation, soil type, annual temperature, and erosion modulus, as well as random factors such as drainage and irrigation, are the dominant factors affecting the soil pH of cultivated land in the Karst regions. ⑤ In terms of model accuracy, the order of global prediction accuracy from high to low is RFK>OK>RF>LRK>GWRK, with RFK performing the best (R2=0.628), followed by the OK model (R2=0.611). The OK model(R2=0.593) performs best in the Karst regions. The RF model (R2=0.621) has the highest accuracy in the non-Karst regions, followed by the OK model (R2=0.616). The OK model's global prediction does not show significant performance in high-value areas, while the LRK and GWRK models expand the high-value and low value areas after partition prediction. The RFK model for global prediction and the OK and RF models for partition prediction have the best accuracy and mapping details. When predicting soil pH in Karst areas, partition prediction at the county scale may not necessarily improve model accuracy. If environmental variables are readily available, the RFK model is recommended for prediction at the county scale. Otherwise, the OK model is recommended for prediction in both Karst and non-Karst areas. This study provides methodological support for high-precision mapping of soil pH, soil acidification regulation, and precision fertilization in the complex Karst areas of southern China.

     

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